Is there another state on the same path as Virginia?
Virginia underwent a dramatic transformation near the turn of the century. Now, a different state could do the same.
It’s election night 2006. There is broad dissatisfaction surrounding the Iraq War, and President Bush’s approval rating rarely extends above 40%. Republicans brace for an overwhelming defeat—and rightfully so.
Before the clock reaches midnight in Washington, DC, major news organizations have already confidently projected that Democrats will flip control of the House of Representatives for the first time in over a decade. It’s a Democratic landslide.
The Senate is a different story. Republicans begin election night with a hefty 55-45 advantage. Democrats need to gain six seats to win a majority in the upper chamber. After two days, Democrats have picked up five—Pennsylvania, Ohio, Montana, Rhode Island, and Missouri. One race remains uncalled: Virginia.
In presidential elections, Republicans have won Virginia 10 straight times, stretching all the way back to 1964. Now, in a surprisingly competitive race, the state will decide the Senate majority. Can Democrats not only defy the odds, but defy history? The nation’s eyes are on the commonwealth.
48 hours after polls close, major news organizations call Virginia for Democrats. Incumbent Republican Senator George Allen concedes the election, losing by just 9,000 votes. Democrats have not only upset Republicans in Virginia but also in winning the upper chamber of Congress. For the first time in history, Republicans have failed to unseat a single Democratic governor, senator, or member of the House of Representatives anywhere in the country.
However, the story doesn’t end there. Following the 2006 upset, the state is classified as a battleground in the upcoming presidential race. The burden is on Republicans to prove the Democratic midterm win was an outlier. And yet, the Democrats’ upset win in Virginia foreshadows something monumental: two years later, Democratic Presidential Nominee Barack Obama wins Virginia, ending the 40+ year Republican streak. He wins the state again in 2012. Hillary Clinton wins it in 2016. Then Biden. Then Harris.
Today, Democrats dominate the state, and Republican wins are scarce. So how did Virginia go from ruby red to consistently blue? The answer is simple: a sprawling DC metropolitan area with a flourishing diverse population. Now, those same factors could cause another southern state to undergo this staggering transformation. That state is Georgia.
When Donald Trump won the presidency in 2024, every state shifted to the right. New York shifted by 11 percentage points, Florida by 10, California by 9, and Texas by 8. The country swung by massive amounts. Georgia swung by just 2 percentage points. Something in Georgia counteracted the national lunge towards Republicans.
The culprit becomes apparent by examining individual counties. In 2024, nearly every county in the nation swung towards Donald Trump. Only a handful swung left. And yet, the county with the biggest leftward swing nationwide was Henry County, GA, just outside Atlanta. In fact, of the top five counties that swung most towards Democrats in 2024, three came from the Atlanta metropolitan area in Georgia. In other words, while almost the entire country swung right, Atlanta did the opposite.
The Atlanta metro area of today is a carbon copy of the DC metro area of twenty years ago. The population is exploding, the demographics are diversifying, and the state is shifting as a result.
So, could Georgia follow the footsteps of Virginia? This November, Democrats will compete in a competitive Senate race in the Peach State, just two years after Trump carried it. The circumstances directly parallel Democrats’ shocking victory in the 2006 midterms, 2008 presidential contest, and every election since.
However, it’s worth mentioning that Democrats have already won Georgia in recent years, though never by a large margin. Joe Biden won the state by 0.3%, and every Senate race won by Democrats has gone to a runoff.
Yet, this year could end the pattern of Democrats barely inching by statewide. Jon Ossoff is heavily favored to win the Senate race in Georgia, with some polls suggesting a double-digit victory. If Ossoff were to win by an unprecedented margin, the continuous Democratic gains in the Atlanta metro area, coupled with an electorate now primed to vote blue, could lock Republicans out of power in the state for decades to come. The opportunity has arrived for Democrats to make Georgia their next Virginia.
