Did Republicans dummymander Florida?

A "dummymander" is exactly what it sounds like—a dumb gerrymander, and Florida's new congressional maps may be just that. The new map aims to eliminate four blue districts by taking swaths of Democrats and diluting them into nearby Republican areas. However, this strategy inherently makes deep red districts more competitive. A clear example can be found in Tampa Bay, where the sole blue district on the Gulf Coast is now split into many red districts, all more competitive than before (see below).

The problem for Republicans is that 2024 was a great year for their party, and 2026 is going to be the opposite. Last year, Republican Congressman Mike Waltz (FL-06) resigned from Congress after being tapped to be the U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., leaving his seat vacant. It was filled in a recent special election, just months after he won the seat. The gerrymander was not yet implemented.

Evident in the map above, Democrats performed 19 percentage points better than in 2024. Here is the problem for Republicans: they used 2024 data to create the new maps. If the election shifted 19 percentage points in favor of Democrats all across the state this November, Democrats would obliterate Republicans in districts engineered for the GOP to win.

Dummymanders have humiliated state legislators several times in recent decades. With so many states engaging in the mid-decade redistricting war, rigged congressional maps could backfire all across the country. This November will prove whether Republicans in Florida were a little too reckless in trying to give themselves the upper hand.