House

The Lower Chamber Leans Blue

Each race has been carefully evaluated and characterized according to our forecasted results. The rating below is our overall rating for control of the House of Representatives.

The Battleground Spectrum

Below is a spectrum showing every district whose forecasted outcome falls below 99% certainty. It organizes these races by their relative level of uncertainty. This layout highlights which contests remain the most competitive or unpredictable.

The Front-Line Targets

These districts voted for a different party at the top of the ticket than down-ballot, making them prime pick-up opportunities in 2026.

The Second-Line of Attack

These districts we're narrowly won in 2024; they are widely considered vulnerable incumbents, and thus, are additional targets this midterm cycle.

History Suggests a Blue Wave

The President's party almost always loses seats in the midterms. Below is the change in the number of House seats by the party that holds the presidency in midterm elections since 1940.