House

The Lower Chamber Leans Blue

Each race has been carefully evaluated and characterized according to our forecasted results. The rating below is our overall rating for control of the House.

Our Race Ratings

We forecasted each individual race, assigning a calculated percentage and a corresponding characterization.

The Gerrymandering Arms Race

States across the nation are involved in fights to redraw congressional maps to favor their party. After the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act, that fight has become much more potent—especially across the South.

The Battleground Spectrum

Below is a spectrum showing every district whose forecasted outcome falls below 99% certainty. It organizes these races by their relative level of uncertainty. This layout highlights which contests remain the most competitive or unpredictable.

The Districts in the Crosshairs

All of the races below are either crossover districts or were very competitive in the last cycle, making them prime pick-up opportunities in 2026.

History Suggests a Blue Wave

The President's party almost always loses seats in the midterms. Below is the change in the number of House seats by the party that holds the presidency in midterm elections since 1940.