Senate

The Upper Chamber Leans Republican

Each race has been carefully evaluated and characterized according to our forecasted results. The rating below is our overall rating for control of the Senate.

Our Race Ratings

We forecasted each individual race, assigning a calculated percentage and a corresponding characterization.

The Generic Ballot

Generic ballot polling asks voters a simple question: whether they'll support Democrats or Republicans. We've compiled all major generic ballot polls and created a running average that is a major factor in our forecast.

The Senate Battleground

Below are the eight seats that will make or break who holds the Senate majority in the next Congress. Most of these races have been assigned a "Lean" rating in our Senate Forecast, with some characterized as "Likely."

Where Must Democrats Gain?

Democrats need to retain every seat they currently hold, then flip an additional four of the states below to regain Senate control. That hasn't happened since 2008, when they built a 60-seat, filibuster-proof mega-majority in the biggest wave for their party in the modern era of politics.