● Senate Outlook Updated — Watch AK, GA, ME, MI, NC

● House: 28 Competitive Seats Rated

● Primary Season 2026 — Races this Tuesday!

Senate

Control is Likely for Republicans

Each race has been carefully evaluated and characterized according to our forecasted results. The rating below is our overall rating for control of the Senate.

The Senate Battleground

Below are the five seats that will make or break who holds the Senate majority in the next Congress. Each of these races has been assigned a "Lean" rating in our Senate Forecast.

Where Must Democrats Gain?

Democrats need to retain every seat they currently hold, then flip an additional four of the states below to regain Senate control. That hasn't happened since 2008, when they built a 60-seat, filibuster-proof mega-majority in the biggest wave for their party in the modern era of politics.

Race Tracker

Interactive Forecasts

The battle for the House will be decided long before voters head to the polls. A handful of districts will determine which party controls the lower chamber — and the agenda in Washington — for the next two years.

View House Forecast →

In the Senate each race carries an outsized influence. From Roy Cooper's entry in North Carolina to primary drama in Texas, the 120th Congress could be decided before most Americans have heard of their candidates.

View Senate Forecast →

Both parties hold 25 governorships, but these races are a critical strategic front. Governors in Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan aren't just swing picks — they're the architects of future district lines and turnout laws.

View Gubernatorial Forecast →

Primaries & Specials

From Texas to California, primaries and special elections are being hotly contested by both parties. These high-stakes contests offer early clues about voter enthusiasm, party strategy, and the fight for control in Washington.

View Primary Tracker →

Democratic Primary

No front-runner has emerged yet, but the map is already in motion. Newsom, Buttigieg, Harris, Pritzker, and Ocasio-Cortez are quietly laying infrastructure in early states before anyone has officially entered the race.

View Democratic Primary →

Republican Primary

The 2028 Republican primary is a total reconstruction. With Trump's appeal waning, emerging figures are quietly testing whether anyone can forge that rare combination of populist fire, emotional resonance, and operational muscle.

View Republican Primary →