● Senate Outlook Updated — Watch MT, OH, PA
● House: 25 Competitive Seats Rated
● Primary Season 2026 — Filing Deadlines Begin

Democrats need to embrace their Tea Party moment

The Democratic establishment keeps reaching for moderates. The party's best historical analog, and its best path forward, is the Tea Party.

Three progressive political figures including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez speaking at a microphone, representing the Democratic Tea Party movement argument

In 2010, the Tea Party didn't ask permission. It primaried incumbents, imposed ideological discipline, and restructured the Republican Party from the inside out. My latest piece in Bruin Political Review makes the case that Democrats are staring at the same opportunity right now in 2026, and are wasting it by playing it safe.

Read the full analysis at Bruin Political Review →

Race Tracker
Interactive Forecasts
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House
The battle for the House will be decided long before voters head to the polls. A handful of districts will determine which party controls the lower chamber — and the agenda in Washington — for the next two years.
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Senate
In the Senate each race carries an outsized influence. From Roy Cooper's entry in North Carolina to primary drama in Texas, the 120th Congress could be decided before most Americans have heard of their candidates.
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Governors
Both parties hold 25 governorships, but these races are a critical strategic front. Governors in Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan aren't just swing picks — they're the architects of future district lines and turnout laws.
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Primaries & Specials
From Texas to California, primaries and special elections are being hotly contested by both parties. These high-stakes contests offer early clues about voter enthusiasm, party strategy, and the fight for control in Washington.
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Democratic Primary
No front-runner has emerged yet, but the map is already in motion. Newsom, Buttigieg, Harris, Pritzker, and Ocasio-Cortez are quietly laying infrastructure in early states before anyone has officially entered the race.
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Republican Primary
The 2028 Republican primary is a total reconstruction. With Trump's appeal waning, emerging figures are quietly testing whether anyone can forge that rare combination of populist fire, emotional resonance, and operational muscle.
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