LMT Politics is an independent political analysis platform. Not a news site. Not a partisan outlet. A structural read on the forces that actually decide American elections — built on data, updated as the map evolves, and accountable to nothing but accuracy.
What We Cover
Every race that moves the map
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House
District-level forecasts tracking every competitive seat. The battle for the lower chamber starts long before Election Day.
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Senate
Seat-by-seat cycle analysis. Majority control will be decided by a handful of states — we track all of them.
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Governors
State executive races with national implications — redistricting leverage, presidential pipelines, and down-ballot infrastructure.
🎖️
Primaries
Who gets on the ballot shapes who wins in November. Primary analysis from filing deadline to election night.
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Presidential
Field tracking from the ground up — structural forces, emerging contenders, and the decisions that define the race before it starts.
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Results & Analysis
Post-election breakdowns that go beyond the headline numbers — demographic shifts, structural patterns, and what it means for the next cycle.
Methodology
How the forecasts are built
01
Public data only
Every forecast is built on publicly available sources — official election results, Census demographics, polling averages, FEC filings, and state-level reporting. No proprietary data, no black-box models.
02
Structural over cyclical
LMT focuses on the underlying forces that shape electoral outcomes — district geometry, demographic composition, incumbency advantage, and candidate quality — not just the polling snapshot of the moment.
03
Updated as the map changes
Forecasts are live documents. When candidates enter or exit races, when redistricting cases are decided, when polling shifts — the analysis updates. Every update is documented.
04
Accountability
Forecasts are on the record. When LMT gets it wrong, we say so clearly and explain why. The track record is public. The reasoning is always shown.
The Founder
Aidan Jonas
Founder & Editor, LMT Politics
Aidan Jonas is a Political Science and Public Affairs double major at UCLA with a focus on legislative affairs, policy research, and political communication. He founded LMT Politics in July 2024 to build a data-driven, independent voice in US election analysis.
He has interned for Congressman Mike Thompson (CA-04), where he worked on constituent services and policy research. He serves as an intern at the United Nations Association at UCLA, presenting on global governance and international policy. He writes long-form political analysis for Bruin Political Review, where his work has examined redistricting, voting rights, and the structural mechanics of American elections.
LMT Politics is the product of that same analytical approach — applied to the races, maps, and forces that shape political power in the United States.
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