🔎 underground races
Highlighting the overlooked 2025 contests with big potential impact.
Embedded Files
california's prop. 50
Proposition 50 (aka the "Election Rigging Response Act") would suspend California’s independent redistricting commission and let Democrats redraw congressional maps, potentially netting them five extra seats as a response to Texas' mid-decade gerrymander. But the measure must first be approved by voters, and early signs suggest the outcome could be closer than expected due to a class of sanctimonious Democrats who want to keep sitting on their hands while the GOP steals the midterms out from under them.
2024 Congressional Map
43D | 9R
Prop. 50 Congressional Map
47D | 5R
early polling on the proposition
Early polling on Proposition 50 has been scattered, with some surveys showing strong support and others finding voters wary. Much of the variation comes down to how the measure is framed, whether as a response to partisan gerrymandering in Texas or as a power grab by California Democrats. The actual ballot language, however, emphasizes fairness and protecting representation, giving the "yes" side a built-in advantage.
New York city's next mayor
In New York City's ranked-choice mayoral race, far-left Democrat Zohran Mamdani faces a slew of challengers, including the city's incumbent mayor and the state's disgraced former governor, along with opposition from his own party’s establishment, which has refused to support him after he won the party's nomination in the primary. The contest has become a symbolic test of whether anti-establishment sentiment is truly gaining traction within the Democratic Party.
The Ranked-choice system
In New York City's ranked-choice mayoral race, voters rank candidates in order of preference, with lower-performing contenders eliminated and their votes redistributed until someone secures a majority (50% of the vote). While Democrat Zohran Mamdani holds a commanding lead in first-choice support, the combined anti-Mamdani coalition, spanning the GOP and much of his own party’s establishment, remains larger, raising questions about whether he can survive the later rounds of counting.
The candidates
After losing the Democratic nomination to Zohran Mamdani, both Andrew Cuomo and Eric Adams chose to mount independent bids in the general election, framing themselves as a bulwark against his candidacy. Their decision has fractured the electorate and underscored how far parts of the party establishment are willing to go to block Mamdani's rise. Curtis Sliwa is the GOP nominee for mayor.
NY state rep and self-described socialist
Former NY governor (D), resigned due to sexual misconduct
Conservative activist and radio host
Incumbent mayor (D), indicted on multiple felonies
Virginia and New jersey governor
Both Virginia and New Jersey feature competitive governor's races this year, with Democrats Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill (who were roommates in D.C.) holding narrow leads over Republican challengers Winsome Earle-Sears and Jack Ciattarelli. Both states were surprisingly close in 2024, making them possible battlegrounds again this year; Virginia flipped to the GOP in its last governor’s race, while New Jersey came within three points of going red.
Two unlikely Battlegrounds
In 2024, New Jersey shifted a staggering 10 points to the right (the second-largest partisan swing of any state in the nation), while Virginia moved 4 points rightward. Those trends have turned both states into far more competitive battlegrounds than Democrats once assumed. The question now is whether lackluster GOP candidates and a poor national environment for Republicans will restore Democrats to their previous strength or if the slippage will continue.
The spanberger effect
Abigail Spanberger represents the moderate wing of the Democratic Party: she consistently voted for Biden's agenda while ranking as the fifth most bipartisan member of the House. She even opposed one of Biden's executive orders on immigration. In 2019, she joined 11 other Democrats in declining to back Nancy Pelosi for Speaker, instead casting her vote for Rep. Cheri Bustos. Spanberger's profile as a pragmatic centrist stands in sharp contrast to insurgent leftist candidacies, such as Zohran Mamdani's in New York City, highlighting the opposing poles of today's Democratic coalition.
Page updated
Google Sites
Report abuse