💣 From the war room
Your must-read rundown of trends, forecasts, and political chess moves.
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Why the Democrats' “Frontrunner” Could Flop early
September 4, 2025
Gavin Newsom is the way-too-early frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic nomination. He’s the only candidate who's built his brand on a fight-fire-with-fire approach against Republicans, showing Democrats how to punch back hard. But early primaries might not care about any of that.
Joni Ernst bails, Democrats get a surprise Senate opening
September 1, 2025
Well, that’s not in the GOP’s 2026 playbook. Sen. Joni Ernst is reportedly heading for the exits, and with her goes the GOP’s strongest insurance policy in Iowa. What was a locked-down red seat, suddenly Democrats circling like hawks.
California’s November vote is democracy’s stress test
August 25, 2025
Forget waiting until 2026. The most important midterm fight is happening this November in California, where voters will decide whether Democrats can redraw the state’s congressional map to offset Texas Republicans’ gerrymander. The stakes couldn’t be clearer.
Gavin Newsom is the only democrat acting like we’re in a fight
August 25, 2025
Democrats say they want to beat Trump, but most of them campaign like it’s 1996. Gavin Newsom? He’s the only one treating Trump like the existential threat he is, and he’s doing it on the one battlefield Trump still dominates: social media. This month, Newsom has turned his X (formerly Twitter) account into a blunt-force messaging weapon.
Op-Ed: Newsom fights fire with fire, Abbott caves to a wannabe dictator
August 10, 2025
Gavin Newsom said he would fight fire with fire. And for once, a Democrat actually delivered. Texas Republicans are carving up their state to hand Donald Trump five new House seats. Newsom just unveiled a California map that would add five Democratic seats of its own.
Democrats' early +5 shakes GOP from House to Governors
August 7, 2025
The 2026 midterms are still 15 months away, but the latest CNBC poll just gave Democrats a reason to feel bullish: a +5 lead on the generic congressional ballot. In a political environment where Republicans control the House by a razor-thin margin, that’s not just encouraging — it’s a flashing red warning for the GOP across every battleground in 2026.
AOC’s radio silence vs. the Newsom-Buttigieg shadow primary
August 6, 2025
For months, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been conspicuously quiet, no major speeches, no viral committee takedowns, no national TV barnburners. Meanwhile, Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg are working overtime on the national stage, hopping battleground states, feeding cable hits, and subtly road-testing stump lines.
Kamala’s back...and spilling the 2024 tea
July 31, 2025
After months off the grid, Vice President Kamala Harris has reemerged with a full-throttle media blitz built around her new memoir, a behind-the-scenes look at the 2024 presidential election. The rollout isn’t just about book sales; it’s an image reset, offering her version of campaign history while reminding Democrats she’s still a national player.
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