291 DAYS UNTIL ELECTION DAY
House Forecast
Updated Jan. 16, 2025
The House is leaning toward the Democratic Party.
291 DAYS UNTIL ELECTION DAY
Updated Jan. 16, 2025
The House is leaning toward the Democratic Party.
Each race has been carefully evaluated and characterized according to our forecasted results. View the full breakdown below.
Below is a spectrum showing every district whose forecasted outcome falls below 99% certainty. It organizes these races by their relative level of uncertainty. This layout highlights which contests remain the most competitive or unpredictable.
Texas Republicans set off a mid-decade redistricting battle across the country. The effort is backed heavily by President Trump, who is pressing Republicans to lock in a larger congressional majority ahead of the midterms.
These districts voted for a different party at the top of the ticket than down-ballot, making them prime pick-up opportunities in 2026.
These districts we're narrowly won in 2024; they are widely considered vulnerable incumbents, and thus, are additional targets this midterm cycle.
The President's party almost always loses seats in the midterms. Below is the change in the number of House seats by the party that holds the presidency in midterm elections since 1940.