405 DAYS UNTIL ELECTION DAY
house Forecast
Updated Sep. 24, 2025
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The gerrymandering arms race
In Texas, Republicans implemented a mid‑decade map that will likely flip five Democratic‑held districts, setting off a nationwide, mid-decade redistricting battle involving a multitude of states. The Texas effort was pushed heavily by Trump, who has pressed Republicans to lock in a larger congressional majority.
the Front-line targets
These districts voted for a different party at the top of the ticket than down-ballot, making them prime pick-up opportunities in 2026.
the second line of attack
These districts we're narrowly won in 2024; they are widely considered vulnerable incumbents, and thus, are additional targets this midterm cycle.
History suggests a Blue Wave
The President's party almost always loses seats in the midterms. Below is the change in the number of House seats by the party that holds the presidency in midterm elections since 1940.
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